[ID] => 9997
[post_author] => 34
[post_date] => 2018-08-20 14:59:49
[post_date_gmt] => 2018-08-20 13:59:49
[post_content] => This is a continuation of my earlier column on ‘Chaos’. Here is a quote from Complexity Labs: Uncertainty is the inability to know everything fully. It is a fundamental property of complex systems primarily due to, the large number of elements, high interconnectivity, interdependence, nonlinear interactions and coevolution. Feedback loops during a system’s development make the space of possible future states to the system grow at an exponential rate. Within complex environments, our traditional analytical methods for modelling the future – that depends on probability and statistics – break down.
What does this mean for the dangerous goods sector? For those who have been reading my columns, it should be evident: we are having to acknowledge that our current management systems may be or are outdated. To deal with increasing complexity, much more is needed to build resilience and govern our industrial systems. We first have to understand that terminals, refineries, chemical process units, etc are complex living social systems of communication and that we need special skills in order to control and manage them. Management cannot be imposed from the outside in the form of more rules, regulation or compliance demand, but has to be done from the inside. You as a manager can learn how to use new, exciting systems sciences to help you to re-design industries into viable systems that then can be maximally controlled and sustained.
We developed a new method of learning and are teaching managers how to design such systems by using information feedback loop mapping techniques. We ask managers: ‘Are you truly in control or just lucky nothing happened yet?’ and start right there.
You see, nature works in a certain manner and always finds new ways to ensure that life can be continued. Benevolent systems can be continued although they always need to adapt, whilst harmful systems will be discontinued and replaced.
The same applies to businesses. The idea is that when we try to improve a bad design, it becomes worse. The best response is to re-design the entire process so that this new design can be considered functional and does not need outside regulation. This actually means that in order to thrive and be in control, ‘uncertainty’, needs to be minimised. This is possible if you know how to do this, but if you don’t know, you can learn it from us.
I always say, ‘people have little time left, but our planet has all the time in the world.’ You all must have noticed the changing climate and endured the heat in July and August? Perhaps you say, ‘climate change is a hoax and should be denied, I don’t believe in it.’ Are you really sure about that? But uncertainty cannot be evaded. Uncertainty always plays a significant part in our observation of reality. The issue that climate change is real or not is irrelevant. What is important here is the fact that it is information
and that only by using ‘all information’
uncertainty can be reduced. Something to think about?
This is the latest in a series of articles by Arend van Campen, founder of TankTerminalTraining. More information on the company’s activities can be found at www.tankterminaltraining.com. Those interested in responding personally can contact him directly at email@example.com.
[post_title] => Learning by Training: Uncertainty
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[post_name] => learning-training-uncertainty
[post_modified] => 2018-08-20 14:59:49
[post_modified_gmt] => 2018-08-20 13:59:49
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Learning by Training: Uncertainty